Tropical Storm Elsa.

We’re just six months into 2021 and the fifth Atlantic storm of this year has already arrived- tropical storm Elsa. Elsa has had quite a run since first lashing Barbados. The storm became the season’s first hurricane, traversed Cuba's mountains as a tropical storm, and even restrengthened back into a hurricane briefly before making landfall in Florida as a tropical storm.

It made landfall in Taylor County, Florida, at around 11 am on 7 July 2021, as torrential rain and gusty winds pounded the state. At landfall, Elsa was packing sustained winds of 65 mph and was moving northward at 14 mph. More than 4.9 million people were under a tropical storm warning across parts of Florida, Georgia, and Carolina on Wednesday afternoon.

Elsa dumped rain across Florida's northern Gulf Coast early Wednesday but spared the state from significant damage as it headed northward. Scattered power outages were being reported along Elsa's path on Wednesday evening, with about 35,000 homes and businesses on either side of the Georgia-Florida state line without electricity. The storm complicated the search for potential survivors and victims in the collapse of a Miami-area condominium on June 24. It also temporarily halted the demolition of the remainders of an overturned cargo ship off the coast of Georgia. Winds from Elsa caused a tree to fall on two cars during an afternoon commute in Jacksonville, Florida, killing one person.

Elsa then wobbled through the Gulf of Mexico, briefly reaching hurricane strength, but moved ashore as a tropical storm. Tornadoes were reported across northern Florida and southwestern Georgia on Wednesday, including one suspected tornado at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, Georgia, which caused multiple injuries and damage. The National Hurricane Center said Elsa's winds have weakened to 40 mph (65 kph) as it made its way into southern South Carolina early Thursday. Up to four inches of rain was expected in parts of North Carolina, with isolated totals of up to six inches, and tornadoes were possible in the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, the center said. North Carolina emergency officials advised residents to prepare for possible outages and avoid driving through floodwaters. Elsa moved over to South Carolina and North Carolina later in the day. Tropical storm warnings were in place from Georgia up to New England, a 1,100-mile swath that is home to over 30 million people.

It is expected to pass near the eastern mid-Atlantic states by Thursday night, and move near or over the northeastern United States on Friday. Some re-strengthening is possible on Thursday and Friday while the system moves close to the northeastern United States.

Elsa is expected to emerge over open water sometime on Friday morning just off the coast of New Jersey. It will continue marching northward and remain a tropical storm when it reaches New York later that day. The impacts will be moderate, with up to 6 inches (15.2 centimeters) of rain and gusty winds that could turn umbrellas inside out.

"Although the rain will be heavy, it will be quick-hitting. Elsa’s accelerating forward motion is predicted to limit the duration of the rain to about six hours or less in most cases”, said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger. The storm’s quick movement will keep much higher rainfall amounts at bay.

By Saturday night, Elsa will emerge over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and likely show a transition to Extratropical Storm Elsa. An extratropical storm loses key characteristics of a tropical storm, such as a warm core. But Elsa will still spin, have gusty winds, and bring rain and maybe even some light storm surge ashore to parts of Atlantic Canada. The forecast shows it’s likely to pass just off the southern tip of Greenland as an extratropical storm. Thereafter, the tropics look to simmer for a week or two, though signs point to a continued busy stretch into August. In terms of the accumulated energy generated by storms, the 2021 hurricane season so far ranks as the second-most in the past 50 years.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming more apparent. A warming planet can expect to experience stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms.

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